Mutual Funds Net Equity inflow jumps to Rs 11000 Cr plus in September from just around Rs 5500 Cr in August. The doomsday forecasters who say markets will collapse as retail investors start to redeem are going to be continuously surprised by the resilient flows. s sabharwal
If you are wondering what is happening in NBFC space ? This is for you from Jefferies note. Jefferies: An LCR for NBFCs? RBI has called out NBFCs for excessive reliance on short-term borrowing instruments To contain liquidity risks spiralling out of control RBI may require NBFCs to hold additional high-quality liquidity (similar to LCR for banks) Estimates suggest liquidity buffer equivalent to 50% of net outflow in 1yr bucket would have a ~3-4% impact on NII for HFCs Impact on Asset Finance Cos would be minimal RBI may also require NBFCs to lower their dependence on shorter-term instruments in favour of NCDs/ Bank term loans Reliance on CPs has increased in the past 2 quarters, with overall CP market up 73% over March18 Assuming half of the increase is replaced by 2yr AAA paper, the overall cost of funds will increase by ~Rs 19.5 bn (or ~4% of aggregate net profit of NBFC/HFCs) Higher-quality NBFCs with stronger ALM position are in much better position to sustain their business growth and profitability. Impact of 50% LCR On NIIs Most Impacted Dewan Housing -14% Repco -11% CanFin Homes -7% LIC Hou -4% PNB Housing -3% Indiabulls -2% Positive Magma Fincorp +9% Bajaj Finance +7% Mahindra Finance +5% Capital First +3% Neutral HDFC Ltd Shriram Transport Chola Finance Sundaram Finance
CHANDA KOCHHAR QUITS ICICI BANK WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT
ICICI Bank board appoints Sandeep Bakshi as MD, CEO for 5 years w.e.f October 3
India Government Announces INR2.5/Liter Relief on Fuel Prices -- Federal government will cut excise duty by 1.5 rupees a liter and asked state-run oil marketing companies to absorb 1 rupee/liter on the sale of diesel and gasoline, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says in New Delhi. India will ask state governments to make an equivalent cut in value-added taxes imposed on sale of fuels, Jaitley says
India Autos Sep’18 sales: Strong 2W sales, PVs subdued Auto cos reported a mixed trend in Sep’18: PV sales were subdued, CVs maintained a healthy trajectory, and strong 2W sales surprised positively, due to likely pre-festive inventory build-up. 1. MSIL: Sales flat yoy, exports drag - Sales were flattish at 162.3k units (-0.5% yoy) and in line with exp. Dom sales were up 1.4% yoy, while exports fell 25.1% yoy. - Mid-size (+11.5% yoy), UVs (+8.7% yoy) and Vans (+6.6% yoy) performed well, while Mini (-9.1% yoy) and Compact (+1.7% yoy) were subdued. - Ytd FY19 sales were up 10% yoy, despite Q2FY19 sales being lower ~1.5% yoy, due to impact of Kerala floods, a high base post GST implementation last year and a delayed festival season. 2. Tata Motors: CVs sustain good growth - Sales were 69.5k units (+ 20% YoY), above exp. - Dom CV sales were up 26% at 46.2k units as all segments reported positive growth led by MHCVs (+32% YoY), ILCVs (+23% YoY), SCV Cargo & Pick-up (+27% YoY) and buses (+6% YoY). - Dom PV sales were up 7% YoY at 18.4k units. - Exports were at 5.2k units (+35% YoY) as CV exports to Nepal and Bangladesh saw healthy traction. 3. M&M: Tractors dip on high base - Total sales were 92.6k units (-6.9% YoY) in line with exp of 90.8k units. - Automotive sales were at 55k (+2% YoY) led by strong traction in LCV’s which grew by 19% YoY. - PV sales were down 16% YoY at 21.4k units. 3Ws were up 17% YoY and exports grew 17% YoY. - Total tractor sales were 37.6k units (-18% YoY) on the higher base. However, competitor Escorts’ tractor sales for Sep’18 were up 2.5% yoy to 10.6k units. 4. Ashok Leyland: Healthy growth continues - Total sales were 19.4k units (+26% YoY) above exp. - MHCV sales were up 21% YoY at 14.2k units whereas LCV’s were up by strong 44% YoY at 5.1k units - Total YTD sales for AL were up by 35% YoY. 5. Hero MotoCorp: Fresh peak in monthly sales - Sales were 769.1k units (+6.7% YoY), above our expectation of 728k units. - Co has mentioned that long term macro fundamentals of the 2W industry continue to remain strong and it is optimistic of a good festival season. - Channel inventory appears to be under control at ~7 weeks. - Ytd growth was 9.4%, residual growth exp is 12.9%. 6. Bajaj Auto: Exports drive a new high - Sales were up 17% YoY at 502k unit (above exp) which were led by strong exports (+30% YoY). - 2W sales were at 430.9k units (+17% YoY). 2W exports were up by strong 29% YoY whereas dom 2W were up 10% YoY. - 3W sales were up 20% YoY at 71.1k units led by strong exports which were up by 32% YoY. 7. TVS Motors: All segments show good growth - TVS’s total sales were at 424k units (+18% YoY ), above exp. - 2W sales were up 17% at 410.7k units led by growth across segments: Scooters (+17% YoY), Motorcycles (+16% YoY), Mopeds (+19% YoY). - 3Ws were up 48% at 13.3k units. - YTD growth was 15.2% YoY, residual growth estimate is 13%. 8. Royal Enfield: Another subdued month - Sales were 71.6k units (+1.7% YoY), below exp. - Sales of bikes (<350 cc) which forms major portion of sal…
With Blessings of Lord Ganesha, we have been predicting continuously about unfavorable Astrological position of Stock Market since 5th September 2018. Since then Nifty is down by over 900 points & Nifty Bank down by over 3500 points This uncomfortable position will continue for 1 more week & after that there should be some relief.
BE CAUTIOUS: Planet Jupiter will be changing the house from Libra to Scorpio from 11th October 2018. It stays in one house for 12 months (approximately). Jupiter is a planet of wisdom. It has direct link with trading / investment in Stock Market. Many sectors, which were out performing since last 12 months, may start underperforming now & many new sectors will start out performing. It is quite possible that sectors which were profitable to an individual uptill now may not suitable for trading / investment. It may also be possible that trading in stock market may not be favorable / profitable after the change, It has been observed many times that investors / traders (not knowing this fact) keep investing /trading in such sectors,( whose astrological support is over), resulting in losses.
We have been predicting continuously about unfavorable Astrological position of Stock Market. Nifty was down by 700 points & Nifty Bank down by over 3000 points in last settlement. Be Cautious, still more pain is left.
Govt inform rbi to reduce crr to increase liquidity..